Analysis of cases declined in Ramsey County, MN, report released
Today, the Analysis of Cases Declined in Ramsey County, MN, report was released.
The report was commissioned by Ramsey County Attorney John Choi and developed by Justice Innovation Lab to support his office’s commitment to transparency, continuous improvement, and data-driven decision making.
“Prosecutorial declination decisions are a critical but often overlooked component of our work, and comprehensive analyses of these decisions remain rare across the nation,” Choi writes. “In recent years—particularly during the pandemic—questions and occasional rumors circulated about whether prosecutors were declining more cases or taking a different approach to charging decisions. While these narratives often lacked context, they underscored the need for clear, accessible information about how declination decisions are made. This report is one step toward providing that clarity.”
The report’s goal was to analyze cases declined by the Ramsey County Attorney’s Office (RCAO) in order to gain a better understanding of patterns that could be utilized to improve efficiency or fairness.
"Prosecutorial declination decisions shape the criminal justice system in profound ways, yet they are rarely examined with rigor or transparency,” explains JIL Executive Director Jared Fishman. “Ramsey County Attorney John Choi and his office deserve tremendous credit for commissioning this analysis and for their willingness to share the findings publicly. This kind of data-driven self-examination is exactly what we need more of across the country. Our hope is that this report not only strengthens practices within the Ramsey County Attorney's Office, but also serves as a model for prosecutors nationwide who are committed to building a more fair, effective, and accountable justice system."
The report analyzes adult felony cases referred to the Ramsey County Attorney’s Office from 2018 through 2024. Over six months, JIL conducted an independent review of cases the office declined, identifying patterns to improve efficiency and fairness. The analysis covers trends in declinations over time, common charges and reasons for declining, declination rates by charge type and race/ethnicity, and how long declined cases took to resolve.
Each case was tied to a single defendant, as co‑defendants could not be identified in the dataset. From 2018 to 2024, 61.6% of referred cases were charged, while 38.4% were declined. The most common reason for declination was insufficient evidence to prove the case beyond a reasonable doubt -- often meaning more investigative work was needed, or the case involved charges that should be handled by a City Attorney. Under Minnesota law, County Attorneys only have jurisdiction over adult felony‑level prosecutions, while City Attorneys prosecute gross misdemeanors and misdemeanors involving adults.
Report Highlights:
Declined cases (2,556) and the declination rate (53.9%) peaked in 2020, remaining high in 2021 due largely to COVID‑19 court shutdowns.
The fewest declinations occurred in 2023 -- both in total cases (1,657) and as a percentage of dispositions (30.7%). This is likely due to the State court’s plan to resolve pandemic‑related backlogs by year’s end.
After three years of decline, the decline rose in 2024 to 34.3%, with a slight increase in total declinations. Staffing turnover among law enforcement, investigators, and prosecutors may contribute to year‑to‑year variation.
Insufficient evidence remains the primary reason for declination: 80.4% of declined cases cite this reason, and 51.3% specifically cite the inability to prove a required element in the law beyond a reasonable doubt.
For the 8.8% of cases declined pending further investigation, the report identifies an opportunity for improved communication between RCAO and law enforcement to ensure follow‑up work is completed and cases are resubmitted when appropriate.
When the RCAO declines to prosecute a case, the disposition of that case is a declination, making it the final outcome of a case.
